Zimbabwe GDP Growth Forecast to Slow to 5% in 2026, Afreximbank Says

Zimbabwe’s economic growth is forecast to slow to five percent in 2026 from an estimated 8.3 percent in 2025, as stronger agricultural output and gold mining support expansion while inflation is projected to ease sharply, according to a new report by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).

The bank’s Zimbabwe Country Brief estimates that the economy accelerated in 2025, supported by a recovery in agricultural production, robust gold exports and high international gold prices. Growth in 2026 is expected to be sustained by improved agricultural yields, government spending and continued strength in gold mining.

Inflation is projected to fall to 3.9 percent in 2026 from an estimated 55 percent in 2025, according to the brief. Afreximbank attributes the expected decline to stabilisation of the Zimbabwe Gold currency, supported by increased domestic gold production and stronger foreign-currency inflows.

The report also identifies Zimbabwe’s mineral resources, particularly lithium, as a potential driver of industrial development and export diversification. The country has substantial lithium deposits, alongside gold, platinum-group metals, diamonds and chrome, which are used in industries ranging from battery manufacturing to energy and infrastructure.

Zimbabwe has taken steps to increase domestic processing of its mineral resources. The brief highlights restrictions introduced in February 2026 on exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrate as part of the government’s efforts to promote local value addition and expand the country’s participation in global battery supply chains.

The government’s National Development Strategy 2, covering 2026-2030, also prioritises macroeconomic stability, infrastructure development, industrialisation and job creation.

The report identifies potential longer-term opportunities in the energy sector following a petroleum production-sharing agreement signed in May 2026 for the Cabora Bassa Basin oil and gas project.

Afreximbank also points to developments in Zimbabwe’s financial sector, including the partnership between InnBucks MicroBank and banking technology provider Mambu in May 2025, as part of the expansion of digital banking and financial inclusion.

Yemi Kale, Afreximbank’s group chief economist and managing director of research and trade intelligence, said Zimbabwe could use its mineral resources to develop higher-value production and regional supply chains.

“Zimbabwe’s rich endowment of critical minerals offers a powerful opportunity to move beyond the export of raw commodities and build competitive regional value chains anchored in local production, beneficiation and value addition,” Kale said.

He added that processing lithium, gold, platinum-group metals and other resources domestically could help expand industrial capacity, create jobs and increase trade across Africa under the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Source: FSX Business News