Global oil prices edged higher after China reported strong trade figures, but uncertainty lingers ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming statement on the conflict in Ukraine and potential shifts in sanctions policy.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed above $71 per barrel Monday, following a 3% gain last week. China closed the first half of 2025 with a record trade surplus, buoyed by resilient factory output despite ongoing tariff tensions that have disrupted global trade.

On Sunday, Trump signaled further military support for Ukraine, promising to send additional weapons. Ahead of a “major statement” scheduled for Monday, the president hinted at possible new measures related to the Ukraine war, including updates to sanctions.

Meanwhile, official Chinese data showed a rise in crude imports for the year, with Iranian oil purchases notably increasing in June, according to analytics firm Vortexa.

Despite these positive signs, concerns remain over global economic growth. Trump’s threat to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico has weighed on risk appetite and cast a shadow over energy demand prospects.

Oil prices remain roughly 5% lower year to date as markets weigh geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which have raised supply concerns, against trade tensions led by the U.S. that could curb demand. Adding to the complexity, OPEC’s decision to ease supply cuts risks creating a surplus in the second half of the year.