U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, breaking a three-week slide, as investors awaited a pivotal inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move, Bloomberg reported. The 10-year yield gained seven basis points to roughly 4.3%, reflecting growing market expectations of a rate cut as soon as September.

Market pricing through interest-rate swaps shows traders assigning over an 80% chance of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next month. This optimism comes amid ongoing uncertainty over how tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump are affecting inflation and economic growth.

Tuesday’s inflation figures are forecast to show consumer prices excluding food and energy—known as core inflation—increasing by 0.3% in July, up from 0.2% in June, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. These data points will be closely scrutinized for signals about the Fed’s ability to balance a cooling labor market with persistent inflation pressures.

Meanwhile, the central bank has resisted White House pressure to cut rates aggressively. Last week, Trump appointed Stephen Mnuchin, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and a close ally, as a Fed governor, highlighting the political stakes in upcoming monetary policy decisions.