As finance ministers and central bank governors prepare to convene in Durban from July 17–18, the upcoming G20 summit faces a challenging backdrop of geopolitical strain, rising debt burdens, and a conspicuous absence from the United States.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is once again expected to skip the meeting, marking his second consecutive no-show at a G20 finance gathering in South Africa this year. His absence has raised questions over Washington’s commitment to multilateral economic engagement, particularly as global cooperation remains critical amid slowing growth and increased financial volatility. Analysts warn that Bessent’s no-show may signal a shift toward a streamlined G20 agenda when the U.S. assumes the presidency next year.

Under South Africa’s presidency and the theme of “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability,” the summit will focus on inclusive economic growth, industrialization, food security, and leveraging artificial intelligence for sustainable development.

The agenda also includes urgent discussions on global debt relief, especially as Sub-Saharan Africa’s external debt climbs to an estimated $800 billion — about 45% of the region’s GDP. Climate finance and financial stability are expected to feature prominently, with calls for renewed coordination among global financial institutions.

However, the gathering takes place amid growing trade tensions. President Donald Trump has introduced a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports, alongside higher rates on key sectors — including 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on automobiles, and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. Additional tariffs on goods from 25 more countries are set to take effect August 1.

The prospect of extending these tariffs to BRICS nations has added to the complexity. Eight G20 members, including host nation South Africa, are part of the expanded BRICS grouping — highlighting blurred lines between overlapping alliances and raising concerns over the G20’s cohesion and influence.

South Africa had hoped to use its presidency to strengthen North-South trust and push forward on climate finance. But with trade disputes escalating and development aid commitments declining, the focus of the meeting is shifting — dampening hopes for consensus.

This week’s gathering marks the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting of the year, following earlier rounds in Cape Town and Washington, D.C.