Sub-Saharan Africa Trade Grows 11% Despite Tariffs and Geopolitical Shocks

Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade value rose 11 percent in the first five months of 2026, outperforming most major regions despite higher tariffs, geopolitical tensions and disruption to key global shipping routes.

The region recorded the third-fastest growth in trade value over the period, behind East Asia and the Pacific at 24 percent and Europe at 12 percent, according to the latest DHL Globalization Tracker, produced by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business.

The performance extends a strong run for the region. Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the fastest growth in trade value globally during the first six months of 2025, suggesting that recent disruptions to global commerce have not yet translated into a sustained slowdown in the region’s external trade.

The increase came as global goods trade expanded at its fastest pace in 15 years outside the exceptional rebound following the Covid-19 pandemic. A growing share of that expansion has been driven by the build-out of artificial intelligence infrastructure, which is generating demand for semiconductors, data-transmission equipment and other technology-related goods.

AI-enabling products accounted for 42 percent of global goods-trade growth in 2025, with their contribution rising to 76 percent in the first quarter of 2026, based on analysis by the World Trade Organization and the OECD.

The resilience of global trade has come despite two major sources of disruption. The war involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted important trade routes, with countries heavily dependent on the waterway experiencing sharper declines. Saudi Arabia’s trade value fell 37 percent in the first five months of 2026 from a year earlier, while the United Arab Emirates recorded a seven percent decline.

Higher US tariffs have also raised concerns about a wider contraction in international commerce. But their effect on global trade has so far been contained, partly because the US accounts for only about 13 percent of world imports and roughly half of its imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026.

Rather than responding with broad retaliation, many countries have sought alternative markets through new trade agreements, allowing international commerce to adjust to the changing policy environment.

For Africa, the continued growth in trade comes as businesses across the region seek to expand beyond domestic markets and build stronger links with global supply chains.

Hennie Heymans, CEO of DHL Express Sub-Saharan Africa, said the figures showed that trade in the region was continuing to expand despite geopolitical uncertainty and market disruption. He argued that the challenge was increasingly to ensure that smaller businesses could access international markets and scale beyond their home countries.

East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth and also became more regionally integrated. The share of trade taking place within the region rose from 57 percent in 2025 to 60 percent in the first five months of 2026, helped by supply chains supporting the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure.

The data also point to a sharp reduction in direct economic ties between the US and China, although not to a wholesale fragmentation of the world economy. Trade between the two countries accounted for 3.5 percent of global trade at its peak in 2015 but had fallen to 1.6 percent in the first five months of 2026.

The report argues that these figures can overstate the degree of separation between the two economies. Chinese components and materials increasingly reach the US through third countries, meaning that indirect trade continues to connect the two economies even as direct flows decline.

Global trade is expected to remain relatively resilient. The tracker projects annual global goods-trade growth of 3.4 percent through 2029, compared with 2.7 percent over the previous decade.

The report also found that globalisation reached a new high in 2025 when measured across trade, capital, information and people flows. Its globalisation index reached 25.8 percent, with information remaining the most internationalised flow, followed by capital and trade, while people flows remained the least globalised.

The DHL Globalization Tracker draws on more than 30 million data points from more than 25 public, private and academic sources. The latest edition is the first published under its new name; it was previously known as the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker.

Source: FSX Business News