Somalia Faces New Risk of Catastrophic Hunger as Floods Loom

More than 26,000 people in Somalia could face catastrophic levels of food insecurity between October and December as drought-affected communities prepare for potentially heavy rains and flooding, according to Save the Children.

The latest analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) identifies thousands of internally displaced people and families in Baidoa, southwestern Somalia, as being at risk of entering IPC Phase 5, the organisation’s highest category before famine classification.

The affected families have spent much of the past year dealing with drought and now face the prospect of flooding amid forecasts of above-average rainfall.

The warning follows an earlier IPC assessment that identified Burhakaba district in the Bay region as being at risk of famine through June 2026. It was Somalia’s first famine-related alert since the severe drought of 2022.

Across the country, 5.4 million people, or about 28 percent of Somalia’s population, are projected to experience crisis-level hunger or worse between October and December. Although the figure is slightly lower than the projection issued in May following seasonal harvests, it is nearly 60 percent higher than the 3.4 million people who faced the same level of food insecurity during the corresponding period last year.

The IPC attributes the deteriorating situation to repeated climate shocks, including the anticipated effects of El Niño, as well as conflict, displacement, economic pressures and high food prices.

Children are particularly vulnerable. Nearly two million children are expected to experience acute malnutrition over the next year, up 3 percent from the previous year. This includes an estimated 433,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition, the most serious form of acute malnutrition.

The latest assessment comes as climate forecasts point to a high probability of above-normal rainfall across central and southern Somalia between October and December. Similar conditions contributed to major flooding in 2023, which affected 2.48 million people, displaced around two million and killed 188 people, according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.

Save the Children warned that flooding could compound Somalia’s existing food crisis, with communities still affected by the consequences of drought, conflict and displacement.

Mohamed Mohamud Hassan, Save the Children’s Country Director for Somalia, said the seasonal rains had provided temporary relief for some families but warned that the improvement was unlikely to last.

“The Gu rains gave some families a short reprieve, but these figures show it will not last,” Hassan said.

He said millions of families living along the Jubba and Shabelle rivers were particularly exposed to flooding, adding that early funding could allow authorities and humanitarian organisations to act before the rains intensify.

Save the Children is calling for urgent funding for nutrition, health, water and food assistance in 26 areas identified as particularly vulnerable. It is also urging donors to finance anticipatory measures under Somalia’s national flood framework before the Deyr rains reach their peak.

The organisation said it has operated in Somalia since 1951, providing health, nutrition, education and child protection services.

Globally, Save the Children has launched Nourished Futures, a 300 million US dollars humanitarian nutrition initiative covering 2026 to 2028. The programme aims to bring together public and private funding to prevent and treat child malnutrition in humanitarian settings.

Source: FSX Business News