Kenya may be heading into another round of interest rate cuts after annual inflation held steady below the central bank’s 5% midpoint for the 16th month in a row.

Consumer prices rose 4.6% in September, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics reported Tuesday, slightly above August’s 4.5% but under economists’ median expectation of 4.7 percent. Core inflation, the central bank’s preferred measure of underlying price pressures, eased to 2.9% from 3%.

The central bank has already trimmed borrowing costs by 350 basis points to 9.5% over the past year. Analysts say the firm shilling and forecasts projecting inflation to peak at 5.2% in March before dropping below 5% by June could nudge the monetary policy committee toward an eighth consecutive cut at its October 7 meeting.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages, which make up about a third of the inflation basket, rose 8.4% in September. Pressure on food prices may intensify as Kenya faces below-average rainfall between October and December, according to the parliamentary budget office.

Transport costs showed a slight slowdown, climbing 4% compared with 4.4% in August, reflecting marginal reductions in gasoline prices. Analysts anticipate fuel costs will remain moderate due to increased OPEC+ output, though geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could introduce volatility.