Gold’s record-breaking rally may still have further to run, with Goldman Sachs warning that demand from private investors could drive the metal beyond its existing forecasts, according to Bloomberg.

The bank currently projects bullion to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 by year-end. But analysts led by Daan Struyven said inflows into exchange-traded funds have already exceeded their model, creating what they called “large upside risk” to those targets.

Gold has risen nearly 50% so far this year, buoyed by renewed central bank buying and the US Federal Reserve’s return to interest-rate cuts. Prices have also benefited from safe-haven flows, with the latest advance coinciding with concerns over a potential US government shutdown and pressure on the dollar.

The rally gathered pace in recent weeks, with bullion climbing 12% since late August and breaking free of a long-held trading range between $3,200 and $3,450 an ounce. On Thursday, the metal traded at around $3,865, after setting a string of records and moving closer to the $4,000  threshold.

Goldman Sachs said in September that bullion could approach $5,000 an ounce if even one percent of privately held US Treasuries were reallocated to gold.