Global cocoa prices are showing signs of moderation as Ghana’s early-season deliveries surged, adding supply to a market that has been tight since last year’s record shortages. Bloomberg reported that warehouse arrivals in August reached 50,440 metric tons, more than four times the volume recorded in the same period in 2024.

The jump reflects an accelerated start to Ghana’s 2025-26 cocoa season, which has been moved up by two months to provide farmers with early cash amid government-set pricing. The farmgate price was raised by 4.2 percent to 3,228.75 cedis ($261) per 64-kilogram bag, reducing the incentive for smuggling beans to neighboring countries where prices are higher.

Most of the cocoa delivered is earmarked for export, although local processors also purchase a portion. Cocobod, the national regulator, forecast total production of 650,000 tons this season, up from 600,000 tons previously, and declined to comment.

The supply surge comes after a period of tight global markets triggered by successive poor harvests in West Africa, which sent New York futures to record highs last year. While a modest surplus is expected for 2024-25, analysts note that overall market conditions remain elevated compared with historical averages.

Ghana’s anti-smuggling efforts have made some headway, with a new funding model involving top exporters improving bean traceability from farm to warehouse, sources said on condition of anonymity. Meanwhile, Ivory Coast, the world’s top producer, is expected to announce higher farmgate prices for its season starting October 1, signalling a similar government-led pricing approach.