Food Aid Recipients Fall 73% as Drought Threatens Ethiopia’s Harvest

November 12, 2026 | By Semahegn Nigatu

The number of people receiving humanitarian food assistance in Ethiopia fell by 73 percent in September, even as drought-related crop failures and conflict threaten to deepen food insecurity across several regions, according to the latest assessment by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).

More than 700,000 people received food assistance during the month, primarily in Somali, Amhara, Afar, Tigray and Gambela, compared with August. The decline comes ahead of a projected deterioration in food security, with some of the country's most vulnerable communities expected to face Emergency conditions from February 2027.

FEWS NET cautioned that the September figure may understate actual coverage because distribution data from the Joint Emergency Operation Programme (JEOP) were unavailable when the report was compiled in late October.

In its October 2026 Food Security Outlook, covering the period through May 2027, the monitoring network warned that historic rainfall deficits during the June-September kiremt season have caused widespread crop damage, while renewed conflict has disrupted agricultural production, labour opportunities and food distribution.

The meher harvest, which normally begins in September and October, has been delayed and is expected to fall below average. In several areas, including lowland East and West Hararghe, central and southern Ethiopia, and parts of Tigray and Amhara, FEWS NET expects little or no harvest.

The consequences are expected to extend beyond reduced household food stocks. Poor households that normally depend on their own production for several months after harvest are likely to turn to markets earlier than usual, increasing their exposure to high food prices at a time when their incomes are constrained.

In East and West Hararghe, crop yield losses in lowland areas are estimated to exceed 40 percent, compared with 10 to 20 percent in the midlands and highlands. FEWS NET expects some of the most vulnerable households in the lowlands to face Emergency food insecurity between February and May 2027 as food stocks run out and households struggle to finance market purchases.

The report also identifies severe risks in eastern, southeastern and southern Tigray, areas along the Tekeze River, and the lowlands of Wag Himra and North Gondar in Amhara. In the most severely affected locations, the expected meher harvest may provide households with only up to two months of food stocks.

In these areas, Emergency outcomes are projected to emerge from February 2027, with near-total crop failure, limited income and poor purchasing power expected to leave households unable to meet minimum food consumption requirements.

Northern Afar faces similar pressures. Conflict-related restrictions on livestock markets, poor animal conditions and disruptions to trade between Afar and Tigray are expected to constrain both food supplies and household incomes. The most remote areas are projected to deteriorate into Emergency conditions between February and May 2027.

Food affordability is adding to the pressure. Although annual headline inflation eased to 14.9 percent in September from 15.1 percent in August, staple food prices remained elevated. Maize prices in Shashemene had increased by more than 100 percent year-on-year, while prices in Logia, Shashemene and Sekota were between 85 and 130 percent above their respective five-year averages.

The assessment attributes persistent food price pressures to inflation, high transportation costs and localised supply constraints. It expects prices in northern and eastern areas to rise rapidly between February and May 2027 as household dependence on markets increases.

The decline in humanitarian assistance is particularly significant given the limited capacity of other support systems. Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) public-works transfers have been largely suspended since January 2026, while direct-support transfers resumed in July in most regions. In Tigray, however, the programme remains suspended and is expected to stay paused through at least May 2027.

Refugee assistance is also constrained. In Gambela, established registered refugees receive rations covering 60 percent of their food requirements, while some newly arrived refugees awaiting registration have received no assistance.

The report estimates that approximately 1.9 million people were internally displaced as of late August. In October, around 50,000 people fled into Kenya following clashes near Moyale in Oromia. Ethiopia was also hosting 1.13 million refugees and asylum seekers as of August.

The outlook is not uniformly negative. FEWS NET expects improving rainfall conditions to support pasture and water availability across southern and southeastern pastoral areas. Above-average rainfall forecasts for the March-May 2027 season could improve livestock births, milk production and household incomes, potentially moving some areas from Crisis to Stressed food insecurity.

However, the network warns that livestock herds have yet to recover fully from previous droughts, limiting the speed of improvement.

The report's projections also point to a difficult macroeconomic environment. Despite forecasting economic growth of 7.8 percent in the 2026/27 fiscal year and improving foreign exchange reserves, FEWS NET expects inflation, exchange-rate volatility and high fuel and transportation costs to continue weighing on household purchasing power through May 2027.

The outlook identifies expanded humanitarian assistance as a key factor that could alter the projected deterioration. If assistance reaches at least 20 percent of the population in affected areas and covers 25 to 50 percent of monthly calorie requirements, food consumption gaps could narrow and some areas could avoid the projected Emergency outcomes.

Source: FSX Business News