Ethiopia’s Inflation Eases, but Food Prices Keep Households on Edge

Mintesinot Nigussie

Ethiopia’s inflation slowed to 9.4 percent in March 2026, according to the Ethiopian Statistical Service, continuing a gradual decline that began in late 2024/2025. Month-on-month prices rose 2.3 percent, suggesting that short-term pressures persist even as the broader trend points to stabilisation.

Food remains the main driver of inflation. Sugar, jam, honey and chocolate surged 22.6 percent, meat rose 14.7 percent, and milk, cheese and eggs climbed 14.0 percent. Oils and fats were up 12.4 percent, vegetables 9.1 percent and bread and cereals 3.5 percent, while non-alcoholic beverages jumped 37.7 percent.

Non-food inflation was more subdued at 7.0 percent, though transport costs rose 13.0 percent, miscellaneous goods and services 15.0 percent, and clothing and footwear 11.3 percent. The 12-month moving average of inflation now stands at 12.0 percent, reflecting a slow but steady return to price stability.

Analysts note that while headline inflation is moderating, persistent pressures in essential goods may continue to shape household budgets and consumption patterns in the months ahead. For Ethiopian households, food items continue to dominate spending, cushioning other areas from contributing more significantly to headline inflation.

The central bank and government are closely monitoring the situation to ensure that the disinflation trend continues without compromising food security. Businesses in the food supply chain are adjusting strategies to manage cost pressures while maintaining affordability for consumers.

The latest data provides cautious optimism that inflation is moving in the right direction, though food price volatility remains a key concern for ordinary citizens.

Economists recommend continued policy support to stabilise food supply chains and protect vulnerable households from price shocks. The easing of inflation is a welcome development, but sustained efforts are needed to keep essential goods affordable.

Overall, Ethiopia’s inflation outlook shows positive momentum, yet food prices continue to keep households on edge as the country navigates post-conflict economic recovery.