Djibouti Holds Presidential Vote With Guelleh Widely Expected to Win

Mintesinot Nigussie

Djibouti goes to the polls on Friday in a presidential election widely expected to extend the rule of incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh, who has led the country since 1999 and is seeking another term following constitutional changes that removed age limits for candidates.

Guelleh, now 78, was originally chosen to succeed his uncle, Hassan Gouled Aptidon, Djibouti’s first president after independence from France in 1977. His long tenure has made him one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders, with five previous election victories, often by large margins.

The election is taking place in the strategically located Horn of Africa state of fewer than one million people, positioned along the Gulf of Aden at the entrance to the Red Sea. Djibouti hosts military bases for the United States, China, France, Italy and Japan, underscoring its importance along key global shipping routes.

Since 2023, the country has also served as a port of refuge for commercial vessels damaged in attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants operating in the Red Sea corridor.

Under Guelleh’s administration, Djibouti has invested heavily in port infrastructure and logistics, strengthening its role as the principal maritime gateway for landlocked Ethiopia. Guelleh faces a single challenger in the race, Mohamed Farah Samatar of the Unified Democratic Centre party, a small opposition group with limited political presence.

Businesses in logistics, shipping and regional trade are closely watching the outcome, as political stability in Djibouti remains critical for regional supply chains and foreign investment.

The election is widely expected to result in another term for Guelleh, maintaining continuity in one of Africa’s most strategically important small states.

Overall, the presidential vote in Djibouti is seen as a formality that will likely reinforce the long-standing leadership of Ismail Omar Guelleh.