Operational setbacks at Dangote Industries Ltd., Africa’s largest oil refinery, are continuing to constrain gasoline supply, sustaining elevated prices across regional and international markets, Bloomberg reported. Analysts warn that ongoing outages and maintenance delays may extend into 2026, reinforcing tight market conditions.

Crude purchases at the refinery have dropped to fewer than 300,000 barrels a day this month, less than half of its capacity and a sharp decline from July’s peak. State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Co. (NNPC) is supplying roughly 150,000 barrels daily under a new agreement, partially mitigating the shortfall, but Dangote has yet to purchase West Texas Intermediate crude for November, reflecting caution amid uncertainty.

The slowdown has been driven by unplanned outages, maintenance backlogs, and workforce disruptions. Further shutdowns may be required early next year to complete critical upgrades on the main gasoline-making unit. “The refinery’s track record this year has been poor, and if that continues it will support European gasoline prices while sustaining local supply gaps,” said Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities.

The residue fluid catalytic cracker unit recently resumed operations after a prolonged hiatus, but the primary gasoline unit may still require additional downtime. Analysts warn that these disruptions could limit gasoline production, producing a lower-value product mix while keeping markets tight.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts that crude run rates could recover once operational issues are resolved, but near-term constraints are expected to continue supporting both African and European markets. The refinery’s difficulties highlight how operational challenges at a single large facility can ripple through regional and global energy markets, affecting fuel availability and pricing well beyond West Africa.