Congo to Surpass Ethiopia in Economic Ranking as Mining Boost Lifts Output

Mintesinot Nigussie

The Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to overtake Ethiopia as sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy in 2026, with output projected at 123 billion US dollars, according to the International Monetary Fund. Ethiopia’s economy is forecast at 122 billion US dollars, placing it just behind Congo, while South Africa, Nigeria, Angola and Kenya retain the top four positions in the region.

The shift reflects diverging currency trends and external conditions. Congo’s currency has strengthened by more than 25 percent against the US dollar over the past year, while Ethiopia’s birr has weakened by around 17 percent following exchange rate liberalisation introduced in 2024.

Congo’s rise has been supported by its mineral sector, as the country expands production and attracts investment linked to global demand for battery metals. As the world’s leading cobalt producer and a major supplier of copper, it is also advancing lithium projects through partnerships with international firms.

The government recently raised 1.25 billion US dollars through its first dollar-denominated bond issuance, benefiting from relatively low debt levels and reforms implemented since 2019. Despite the change in economic ranking, Ethiopia is projected to record stronger growth of 9.2 percent in 2026, compared with 5.9 percent for Congo.

Ethiopia is also facing pressure from fuel shortages linked in part to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, prompting authorities to call for more cautious use of available supplies.

Overall, Congo’s projected overtake of Ethiopia as sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy in 2026 highlights the impact of mining sector growth and currency movements on regional economic rankings.