Chinese tourism to Japan collapsed in December, offering the clearest diplomatic rift between Tokyo and Beijing.

The number of Chinese visitors fell 45 percent from a year earlier to roughly 330,000, Japan’s tourism minister Yasushi Kaneko said, reversing what had been one of the country’s strongest post-pandemic growth engines.

The slump followed a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could qualify as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, a claim that could allow Tokyo to send in its military.

Beijing responded by warning citizens against traveling to Japan and instructing airlines to cut flights, triggering widespread cancellations.

Kaneko said the government was monitoring China’s travel advisory closely and stressed Japan’s desire to restore tourism flows “as early as possible.”

The reversal is economically significant. Chinese arrivals had risen more than 40 percent in the first ten months of the year, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization.

Chinese tourists are Japan’s biggest spenders, accounting for about one-fifth of the country’s ¥8.1 trillion (52.4 billion dollars) tourism revenue in 2024. The pullback was quickly felt in the retail sector, with duty-free sales at department stores falling sharply in December.

Japan’s broader tourism boom has so far masked the damage. Total foreign arrivals surpassed 40 million for the first time in 2025, helped by strong demand from other regions, pushing overall visitor spending to a record ¥9.5 trillion ($60 billion).

Even so, the outlook has darkened. While Chinese visitor numbers for 2025 remain about 30 percent higher than a year earlier, the decline since November, coupled with Beijing’s flight restrictions through March 2026, raises the risk of a prolonged downturn. Japan’s largest travel agency has warned the country could see its first annual drop in foreign tourism since reopening after the pandemic.

Takaichi has repeatedly said Japan’s position on Taiwan remains unchanged and consistent with the 1972 joint communiqué, in which Tokyo said it “understands and respects” Beijing’s claim over Taiwan but stops short of backing it.