The Congressional Budget Office’s latest update shows that President Donald Trump’s tariff programme will not deliver enough fiscal relief to counter the cost of his tax-cut law, with the agency trimming its long-term tariff revenue forecast by 1 trillion US dollars, Bloomberg reported.

The new assessment places combined deficit savings from higher duties and lower interest costs at 3 trillion US dollars across the 2025 to 2035 period. Of that total, 2.5 trillion US dollars reflects additional customs revenue, while 500 billion US dollars stems from reduced borrowing needs. The figure marks a sizeable reduction from the 4 trillion US dollars calculated in August.

The revision comes after the CBO incorporated fresh data and recent tariff adjustments. Director Philip Swagel said most of the change is due to updated information, while modifications to tariff rates since the summer further reduced the projected impact.

The lower savings widen the gap between tariff proceeds and the cost of Trump’s tax overhaul. In July, the CBO estimated that the tax changes would add 3.4 trillion US dollars to deficits through 2034. Neither estimate includes the broader economic consequences of the policies.

The recalibration arrives against a backdrop of persistent fiscal pressure. The federal government recorded a 1.78 trillion US dollars deficit in the fiscal year ending in September, almost unchanged from a year earlier. The CBO has previously warned that federal debt could exceed the post-war peak by 2029, before factoring in the latest tax and tariff adjustments.

The projections assume that tariff receipts continue to flow to the Treasury. Trump has promoted the idea of issuing 2,000 US dollars tariff payments to lower- and middle-income households, a proposal that has drawn scepticism from lawmakers who argue the funds should be used to narrow deficits.