Africa’s Thirsty Future: Can the AU Summit Turn Water into Wealth?

By Aksah Italo
Published on 02/12/26

This week Addis Ababa hosts the 39th African Union Summit, convening leaders from a continent of roughly 1.4 billion people whose combined GDP now exceeds three trillion dollars.

In principle the summit is designed to shape collective policy and project African unity. In practice, it resembles a well-rehearsed ritual, declarations issued, speeches delivered, headlines made.

This year addresses one of the continent’s most urgent crises “water, sanitation, and hygiene” takes center stage under the theme: “Assuring Sustainable Water Availability and Safe Sanitation Systems to Achieve the Goals of Agenda 2063.”

The scale of the deficit is sobering. According to the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme, about 780 million Africans lack access to at least basic sanitation services.

Roughly 208 million still practise open defecation, accounting for a significant share of the global total.

Only about 45 percent of the population has access to basic hygiene services such as a handwashing facility with soap and water at home. Access to safely managed drinking water services, the gold standard that includes water available on premises, when needed and free from contamination, remains below 35 percent in sub Saharan Africa.

The economic costs are substantial. The World Bank has previously estimated that poor sanitation alone costs countries up-to 12.5 percent of GDP through health spending, lost productivity and premature mortality.

Diarrhoeal diseases remain among the leading causes of death for children under five. Every 80 seconds a child in Africa dies from illnesses linked to unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene. Repeated infections contribute to stunting, which affects roughly one in three children in sub Saharan Africa and reduces lifetime earnings potential.

Demography sharpens the urgency. Africa’s population is projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050. Urban areas are expanding at nearly twice the global average rate. Yet more than half of urban residents in sub Saharan Africa live in informal settlements where piped water and sewer networks are scarce. Utilities often operate at a loss. In many cities non revenue water, lost through leakages or illegal connections, exceeds 40 percent.

Cost recovery ratios frequently fall below sustainable levels, limiting maintenance and expansion.

Climate change compounds the stress. Africa contributes less than four percent of global greenhouse gas emissions yet faces disproportionate impacts. The continent has experienced a tripling of drought events since the 1970s. In the Horn of Africa alone, consecutive failed rainy seasons have left tens of millions facing acute food insecurity.

At the same time extreme rainfall and cyclones have intensified, as seen in southern Africa where storms have displaced hundreds of thousands and damaged water infrastructure.

The African Development Bank estimates that climate change could reduce Africa’s GDP by up to 15 percent by 2050 if adaptation measures lag.

Ethiopia illustrates both progress and constraint. The government launched a 46.5 million dollar programme aimed at eliminating open defecation by 2030. More than 11 million people now live in communities declared open defecation free. National access to basic water services has improved over the past decade, yet safely managed coverage remains far lower, especially in rural areas where roughly 80 percent of the population resides. Fiscal space is limited. Public debt has risen sharply in recent years, constraining large scale infrastructure investment.

Financing gaps are continent wide. The African Development Bank estimates that Africa requires between 20 and 30 billion dollars annually to achieve universal access to water and sanitation by 2030. Current spending falls well short of that range. Official development assistance for water supply and sanitation to sub Saharan Africa averages less than 10 billion dollars a year and is unevenly distributed.

Domestic public expenditure often accounts for less than 0.5 percent of GDP in many countries, below levels considered adequate to meet universal service goals.

Against this backdrop the African Union’s own financial capacity is modest. Its 2025 budget of about 608.5 million dollars represents less than 0.02 percent of the continent’s GDP

.A substantial share of programme and peace and security spending continues to rely on external partners, notably the European Union. Member states have pledged to finance 100 percent of the operational budget and 75 percent of programme spending from domestic resources. Compliance has been inconsistent, reflecting broader fiscal strains.

Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, the AU Commission chairperson, has argued that Africa must mobilise innovative financing and broaden partnerships to deliver on its development agenda.

In practice this could mean scaling blended finance instruments, leveraging climate adaptation funds and issuing thematic bonds linked to water security. It also requires regulatory reforms to make utilities more creditworthy and to attract private participation without pricing out low income households.

Regional cooperation is equally critical. More than 60 percent of Africa’s surface water resources are transboundary. The Nile, Niger, Congo and Zambezi basins support hundreds of millions of people and multiple national economies. Yet basin management institutions remain underfunded and politically sensitive. As water scarcity intensifies, the risk of tension increases, particularly where hydropower, irrigation and urban supply compete.

Critics argue  that without investments in basic services the dividend could become a liability. Water and sanitation underpin health, education and labour productivity. They influence investor perceptions of stability and long term growth potential.

The 39th AU Summit thus confronts a stark equation. Universal access to water and sanitation is technically feasible and economically rational. The returns in health, productivity and resilience are well documented. Yet the financing gap remains wide, institutions are fragile and climate risks are mounting. Whether the continent produces concrete commitments, measurable targets and credible funding mechanisms will determine if water security becomes a pillar of Africa’s growth strategy or remains another aspiration in a long list of continental declarations.

 Experts point that Africa’s citizens the issue is immediate and tangible. Access to clean water and safe sanitation shapes daily life, from child survival to workforce participation, they argue. In human terms it is dignity. The summit’s legacy will be judged not by the ambition of its rhetoric but by the tangibility of the systems it helps to build.