Africa’s Solar Installations Surge 45% as Distributed Power Takes Lead

Africa is set for its biggest annual increase in solar power, with installations expected to reach 17GW in 2026 as businesses, households and other users increasingly add smaller systems outside traditional power grids.

New installations are forecast to rise about 45 percent from last year, according to an October analysis by Ember. The increase follows growth of 51 percent in 2025 and 25 percent in 2024, pointing to a rapidly expanding market for solar across the continent.

Much of the expansion is taking place away from large utility-scale projects. Distributed systems, including commercial rooftop installations, estate projects and solar plants paired with battery storage, are expected to account for about three-quarters of this year’s new capacity.

That shift is also making the scale of Africa’s solar expansion harder to capture in official statistics. Customs records and data from installers can provide a more current picture of installations in markets where national capacity registers do not fully account for smaller, behind-the-meter systems.

Ember expects 36 of Africa’s 54 countries to record their highest-ever annual solar additions this year.

South Africa is projected to remain the continent’s largest market, with 3.3GW of new installations, but its share of Africa’s total is expected to fall below 20 percent for the first time since 2019.

Egypt is forecast to add 2GW, while Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are each expected to install 1.7GW. Algeria is projected at 1.4GW and Morocco at 1GW, giving Africa six gigawatt-scale solar markets.

The fastest growth is occurring in several markets that are starting from much smaller bases. Ember estimates installations will more than double in 19 countries this year, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo recording a projected 544 percent increase, followed by Zimbabwe at 282 percent, Egypt at 176 percent and Zambia at 117 percent.

The growth comes as international development institutions push to expand electricity access across the continent. The World Bank Group and African Development Bank said in June that Mission 300 had connected more than 50 million people in 40 countries since July 2023.

Tanzania, Nigeria and Ethiopia were among the largest beneficiaries reported by the African Power Platform. Kenya added about two million connections and Malawi about 1.9 million.

The pace of new connections remains below what is required to meet Africa’s 2030 electricity-access ambitions. The International Energy Agency estimates that the continent needs about 15 billion US dollars a year to achieve universal access, while less than 2.5 billion US dollars was committed to new connections in sub-Saharan Africa in 2023.

For businesses, the solar market is increasingly tied to the cost and reliability of grid electricity. In Nigeria, for example, solar developers are seeing customers move from temporary generator replacements towards systems designed from the outset around solar generation and battery storage.

Kowatek Solar said its project pipeline reflects this change, with Nigerian customers increasingly seeking integrated solar-and-storage systems rather than solutions designed simply to address emergency power shortages.

The expansion suggests that Africa’s next phase of solar growth is likely to be shaped not only by large power projects but also by thousands of smaller installations serving businesses, estates and other electricity users.

Source: FSX Business News